American Research Group's Oct. 4-8 survey of 600 likely voters may be the first poll to find Obama ahead in West Virginia.
Five percent (corrected figure) were undecided, and the margin of error was +/- 4%. The probability was 97.98%.
Among the findings:
- 54% of women favored Obama (vs. 36% for McCain);
- 49% of men favored McCain (vs. 46% for Obama);
- McCain had a slightly larger margin of Republicans than Obama did Democrats (79% to 76%);
- Obama edged out McCain among independents, 50% to 38%.
"(A)n especially odd result," observes Political Wire.
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