15 August 2007

The Guessinator 5000

The table games referendum in Kanawha County will prevail by 95 votes once all of the uncounted ballots are counted _ if the early voting trends in those precincts mirror that of the regular voting Saturday.

(click to enlarge)

The above chart lists the precincts that failed to count their early votes, and the percentage breakdown of the votes cast (and counted) Saturday in each. It then applies those percentages to their uncounted ballots.

We'll get the actual numbers, of course, once the vote canvass begins Friday. The above estimate also does not include the more than 500 provisional ballots that must be reviewed during the audit. Opinions appear mixed as to whether very many of these challenged votes will be counted.

Update: MetroNews also touches on this topic (with audio).

1 comment:

Jim said...

This is a nice analysis. Cool name too.

I was wondering if there is any way to determine the percentage of yes vs. no votes for early voting by district. I'm not sure if the early votes trended more in support or opposed or it was roughly the same as the Saturday votes.

Since early votes are most of the uncounted ballots that might impact the estimates.