Quote of the Day

"Hello, I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the US Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home, and killed Americans. And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his Democrat allies lack the judgment to lead our country."

-- Alleged robo-call script that McCain-Palin and the RNC paid a Weston call center to read to voters, prompting one employee to quit and talk to The Charleston Gazette. The Associated Press and others have questioned the GOP's allegations regarding Obama's ties to Ayers.

Update: Factcheck.org reviewed the robo-call and concluded, in part, that "to say that they 'worked closely' is an exaggeration." Its analysis also found other problems with the attack.

Here's what AP has reported on the topic:

In 1995, Ayers hosted a meet-the-candidate session at his home for Obama as he prepared to run for the state Senate. Later, the two worked with the same charity and social-service organizations in Chicago.

Obama has tried to minimize his link to Ayers, at one point saying he was just a guy who lived in the same neighborhood. But while there was more to the relationship than that, there is no evidence they were ever close friends or that Ayers advised Obama on policy. Obama has denounced Ayers' violent activities, which occurred when Obama was a child.

Race, West Virginia and the Road to the White House

The Washington Post traveled to Wheeling and offers an online multimedia report about how "local Democratic leaders in this old steel town have struggled to deal with their views on race and integrate their operations with the many minorities flooding the party in support of Barack Obama."

State Auditor Glen Gainer, meanwhile, is denying comments attributed to him by The Politico during the recent pro-Obama bus tour through southern West Virginia. The Charleston Daily Mail reports that Gainer suggests the remarks about racism in Logan County were uttered by someone else, while Politico stands by its story.

Update: MetroNews spoke to bus tour participants and offers audio from one, UMWA President Cecil Roberts. MetroNews also heard from a deputy director of the RNC who predicts a John McCain win in West Virginia. With audio.

Voting Concerns Persist in W.Va.

The Intelligencer of Wheeling talks to an Ohio County voter who reports trouble casting her ballot on a touch-screen machine there.

The Charleston Gazette, meanwhile, follows up with state election officials regarding their efforts to ensure the machines count votes correctly. Public Broadcasting also reports on the recent allegations of machines switching votes. With audio.

Rasmussen: McCain 52%, Obama 43% in W.Va.

Rasmussen Reports surveyed 500 likely voters on Monday. Another 4% were undecided.

The margin of error was +/- 4.5%. The probability was 98.09%.

Among the highlights:

• "McCain holds a dominant lead among unaffiliated voters in West Virginia, 57% to 36%."
• "He also leads 55% to 42% among men and 49% to 43% among women."
• "McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of West Virginia voters and unfavorably by 38%."
• "Obama’s numbers are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable"
• President Bush's disapproval rating was 70%.
  

Election 2008: Shorts

• The Associated Press' Tom Breen talks to U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., about his campaign for a fifth term.

• The Register-Herald of Beckley hears from Jay Wolfe, Rockefeller's Republican challenger.

• The GOP candidate for agriculture commissioner, Mike Teets, plans to visit all 55 counties between Tuesday and Nov. 4 in his bid to unseat Democrat Gus Douglass, AP reports.

• The Charleston Gazette hears from Putnam County voters who say touch-screen machines switched their votes from Democrat to Republican. But Secretary of State Betty Ireland tells AP and MetroNews that this type of voting machine has been repeatedly tested, and that its maker is checking out the complaints.
  

Election 2008: Governor

• Gov. Joe Manchin outlined his energy policy to The Register-Herald of Beckley.
  

• The libertarian Cato Institute ranks Manchin among only three governors, and the only Democrat, deserving of an "A" for fiscal policy. As The Associated Press reports, Cato says Manchin "has enacted probably the most pro-growth tax reforms of any governor." The Charleston Gazette also has an item.

• Public Broadcasting has coverage and complete audio from Sunday's debate between Manchin, Republican Russ Weeks and the Mountain Party's Jesse Johnson.

• Weeks talks to The Register-Herald about his bid.

• The Beckley paper also hears from gubernatorial write-in candidate Butch Paugh of the Constitution Party.
  

Registered Voters in W.Va. at All-Time High

A record 1.2 million West Virginians are registered to vote in the general election, the secretary of state reports.

As The Associated Press notes, the last high was 1.17 million voters in 1952, when the state's population peaked at about 2 million. It now has about 1.8 million people.

Both AP and the Herald-Dispatch of Huntington note the influx of unaffiliated voters. "Other" voters now account for 15 percent of the state's total.

"Democrats remain the majority, with more than 675,300. They outnumber Republicans by just under two-to-one," AP notes.

Mason-Dixon: McCain 47%, Obama 41% in W.Va.

Mason-Dixon conducted the poll for NBC, and surveyed 625 likely state voters Oct. 16-17.

The numbers suggest 12% were undecided or chose other candidates. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%, and a probability of 94.55%.

Update: "Well, scratch West Virginia from the swing state list for the time being," opines FiveThirtyEight.com upon assessing this and the coincidental PPP poll.

"By no means is the state totally unwinnable for Obama," the statistical analysis site offers, "but in all probability, it is pretty far from the tipping point."

Election 2008: Governor

Gov. Joe Manchin, Republican Russ Weeks and Mountain Party nominee Jesse Johnson square off Sunday for the latest debate in the gubernatorial race, this one hosted by The Associated Press and West Virginia Public Broadcasting.

The latter will air the debate at 7 p.m. Sunday, and again at 9 p.m. Monday.

Update: AP has a report from the half-hour exchange.

AP recently profiled the three candidates, finding they have "several views in common, but are miles apart on others - including mountaintop removal, abortion, the death penalty and the leadership of the current administration."

Manchin also spoke to the editorial board of the Bluefield Daily-Telegraph about his record and his bid for a second term.

PPP: McCain 50%, Obama 42% in W.Va.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,223 likely voters Thursday and Friday, yielding a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. Undecideds were 8%. The probability is 99.83%.

Among the highlights:

• "Right now in almost every battleground state more than 60% of the electorate lists the economy as its top issue, something that very much plays to the Democrats’ advantage. But only 54% do in West Virginia, with moral and family values placing second at 15%, a much higher share than it is pulling anywhere else.
  

• "McCain’s advantage with those values voters? 87-7."

• Obama "leads McCain with voters in his own party just 62-29, at the same time that McCain is nailing down 85% of the Republican vote. McCain also has a strong advantage with independents, 53-36."

• Obama "is actually faring worse with older voters in the state than John Kerry did in 2004. Among those surveyed, 45% said they supported Kerry but only 41% say they support Obama."

The firm concluded that "Contrary to other recent polls that have found West Virginia too close to call," McCain "is likely to repeat the success George W. Bush had in the state in 2000 and 2004.”

The firm relies on automatic phone calls. "Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify," the polling memo notes.

The memo includes each question as asked and response rates.

Biden Coming to W.Va.

Barack Obama's campaign tells The Associated Press that running mate Joe Biden will campaign Friday in Charleston "to talk about the economy."

AP notes that Biden's planned appearance offers "the latest sign of Obama stepping up efforts in the Mountain State since polling suggested a close race with Republican John McCain."

The belief that West Virginia is in play likely prompted The Politico to accompany state Democratic leaders Saturday "on a winding, eight-county bus tour through the south of the state, " where "in one small mining town after another, they sold Barack Obama to small crowds of Democrats with remarkable directness."

The Charleston Gazette also covered the weekend coalfields trek. MetroNews, meanwhile, reports that "the NRA began advertising statewide against Democrat Barack Obama Saturday."

Update: A new poll puts McCain 8 percentage points ahead of Obama in West Virginia.

Update II: National Public Radio was also in Logan County.

Early West Virginia Voters Report Ballot Problems (Updated)

A trio of early voters who tried to cast their ballots in Jackson County this week tell The Charleston Gazette that touch-screen voting machines "kept switching their votes from Democratic to Republican candidates."

"When I touched the screen for Barack Obama, the check mark moved from his box to the box indicating a vote for John McCain," Virginia Matheney of Kenna told the newspaper.

Two other voters alleged the same problem while trying to cast their ballots for the Democrat. Matheney and one of these others also reported it occurred while trying to vote for the Democrats running for governor, the state Supreme Court and the local state Senate seat.

"Why didn't she [the polling clerk] tell me before I even used the machine that might happen?" said Calvin Thomas, 81, of Ravenswood. "And how many people, especially my age, didn't notice that?"

Deputy Secretary of State Sarah Bailey told The Gazette that "When we received a call about this, we immediately called the county and told them to recalibrate the machines to make sure the finger-touch [area] lines up with the ballot..."Sometimes machines can become miscalibrated when they are moved from storage facilities to early voting areas. We get a couple of calls about this each election year."

Jackson County Clerk Jeff Waybright said his workers recalibrated the machines after getting the call, but also said voters may not be touching the right parts of the machine screens.

"People make mistakes more than the machines," he told the paper, "but I went in yesterday and recalibrated the machines. We are doing everything we can not to disenfranchise anybody."

Update: Voters in Putnam County report similar problems to The Gazette.

Judge Blocks W.Va. Election Ad Rules as Unconstitutional. Again.

The bulk of the Legislature's attempted fix of rules regulating political ads failed to pass muster Friday with a federal judge, The Associated Press reports.

"Johnston's order blocks the state from barring corporation-funded ads that use 'express advocacy' as defined as language that 'When considered in its entirety, the communication can only be interpreted by a reasonable person as advocating the election or defeat of one or more clearly identified candidates,'" AP explains.

It does leave a portion of the legislation's "express advocacy" ban intact, but "as with the federal ruling issued in April, Johnston's order rolls back the disclosure requirement for election-time ads to spots that air on radio and broadcast, cable and satellite TV," AP reports.

Legislative Republicans had been almost uniformly against the June special session measure.

"Certainly we had those concerns when the bill was brought before the Legislature," House Minority Leader Tim Armstead, R-Kanawha, told AP. "I think we all felt we were all for disclosure but we wanted the type of disclosure that would hold constitutional scrutiny."

"Lawyers for the Center for Individual Freedom and West Virginians for Life challenged the law," the article said. "Both groups want to weigh in on the state Supreme Court race, while the center has also targeted state Attorney General Darrell McGraw in prior ads. But each said they would not if they had to disclose their contributors."

The Charleston Gazette also reports on Friday's ruling.

Update: Secretary of State Betty Ireland, as the state's chief elections officer, plans to appeal Friday's and is seeking a stay, AP and MetroNews report. She argues that "The relief granted by the injunction effectively rewrites West Virginia’s election law some 17 days before the general election, which will undoubtedly result in a free-for-all of mud-slinging campaign attack ads by special interest groups that have no duty to report their expenditures or their sources of funding."

Election 2008: Congress - 2nd District

• The Associated Press profiles U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-2nd, as she faces Democrat Anne Barth in her bid for a fifth term.

• AP also reports that "GOP leaders in Congress, the finance and insurance industries and health care interests" helped Capito raise nearly twice as much in PAC funds as Barth during the latest filing period.

• The Charleston Gazette reports on the back-and-forth between the two candidates in the competitive race.

• The Charleston Daily Mail looks at the negative ads that each campaign has launched against the other as Election Day nears.
  

Election 2008: Governor

Both The Journal of Martinsburg, WEPM radio and the Herald-Mail of Hagerstown (Md.) offer coverage from Thursday's debate pitting Gov. Joe Manchin against Republican challenger Russ Weeks and Mountain Party nominee Jesse Johnson. The former two helped sponsor the Hedgesville forum.

Obama Buys Ads in W.Va.

The Associated Press reports that Democrat Barack Obama has "extended his front-running campaign into West Virginia, a bastion of white, middle-class voters who rejected his primary season appeals, and confidently broached the subject of victory in a presidential contest playing out on Republican turf."

While noting Obama's lopsided loss to Hillary Clinton in the state's May primary, and President Bush's back-to-back electoral wins here, AP reports that economic concerns "and TV ads meant for neighboring Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia that spilled over onto West Virginia televisions have made the state competitive."

Republican John McCain and GOP forces, meanwhile, "are mostly focused on protecting states Bush won in 2004, including Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia," the article said.

Rating the Capito-Barth Race

The latest rankings from a pair of national political analysts include U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-2nd, among GOP House members vulnerable to Democratic gains. Each also offers a caveat.

Larry Sabato lists Capito among 55 House Republicans whose seats are "in play" (as opposed to 144 deemed "Safe/Solid R"). Capito's race is among 17 on that roster rated as "Likely R."

Stuart Rothenberg also includes the 2nd District seat among swing districts that should serve as bellweathers for the Democrats' fortunes on Election Day:

Thinking 30 seats-plus for Democrats? Capito’s district is a good place to look. Polling has shown that the Republican incumbent looks like winner, so if she is upset, you know something huge is happening.

IA: McCain 49%, Obama 47% in W.Va.

Insider Advantage surveyed 522 likely West Virginia voters Monday by phone, with the resulting margin of error at +/- 4%.

Undecideds amounted to 3%. The probability was 67.96%.

"Like all other major polling firms, data are weighted by age, race, gender and political party affiliation," the memo notes.

Election 2008: President (2nd Update)

MSNBC continues to speculate about West Virginia's status on the White House electoral map, this time citing a Tuesday visit to neighboring Ohio by Democratic running mate Joe Biden:

“Which way is West-By-God-Virginia?” Biden asked the crowd Ohio University Eastern Campus, about 10 miles west of that state's border with Ohio. “I want to send a message to West Virginia -- we’re going to win in West Virginia! … We’re going to shock the living devil out of y’all!”

The First Read blog had earlier linked to a sweeping ratings change by The Cook Political Report for the state, from "Solid R" to "Toss Up."

As for the other national political analysts:

• Congressional Quarterly: Leans McCain

• FiveThirtyEight.com: Light Red

• Pollster.com: Toss-Up

• The Rothenberg Political Report: Leans McCain

• Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Solid Republican

MetroNews hears from Dick Morris (with audio) and an analyst from Cook (also with audio) on the subject.

Update: Political Wire relays this observation from the blog for Public Policy Polling on the difficulty with querying voters in the Mountain State:

If someone can get me a random sample of people who voted in the 2004 general election, 2006 general election, or 2008 primary in West Virginia then we will poll it. Concern about being able to get a sample of sufficient quality there is what makes us, and I'm guessing other companies that do registration based sampling, hesitant to poll there. That's not a problem with most other states.

Update II: Insider Advantage has a new poll.

Election 2008: Governor

• The Herald-Mail of Hagerstown sets the stage for Thursday's debate in nearby Hedgesville featuring Gov. Joe Manchin, GOP challenger Russ Weeks and Jesse Johnson, the Mountain Party nominee.

• MetroNews recaps Monday's debate between Manchin and Weeks, held in Charleston.
  

• The Register-Herald sought to follow up on Weeks' allegation that "an unnamed Division of Highways official landed a state road contract with the Manchin administration in violation of state law." Citing fear of "retribution"to the latter, "the former state senator refused to identify either the official allegedly involved or name the source of his information," the Beckley newspaper reported.